NAR says it's a buyers market!

[Jim Messenger]

NAR released today that it is officially a buyers market. "David Lereah, NAR’s chief economist, said the housing market is flattening-out." Do tell David...

I was starting to wonder if the folks over there were asleep at the wheel or just in denial.


-Jim

Originally Posted by Jim Messenger NAR released today that it is officially a buyers market. "David Lereah, NAR’s chief economist, said the housing market is flattening-out." Do tell David... I was starting to wonder if the folks over there were asleep at the wheel or just in denial. -Jim

Trust me, we've noticed the market status here in Grand Rapids. For quite a while too.

[kensmith]

Our market has changed a lot, but still wouldn't call it a buyers market. It's more of an even market. Good clean properties that are priced correctly will still sell in the first couple weeks. But if your home needs work and/or is overpriced you will sit for a very long time.

Most in my market would disagree with me and call it a buyers market, but most of them have never seen a true buyers market as they have been in the business to short of a time frame. While I haven't been selling real estate during a buyers market, I know enough agents that have and this isn't it YET.

[naplesrealestate]

I would have to say that we are in a buyers' market - for example, the condo market:
5,782 on the market
112 pending sale
119 closed sales within the past 30 days.

Volume of closed sales 25% of what it was last year over the same time period.

[kensmith]

Glenn I would agree with you, you have a buyers market. You have about 4 years of inventory based on the last 30 days of closings. That is a huge number.

We are around a years inventory in most markets. Some markets are getting close to 2 years but they are ones that had the largest price increases over the last few years. We are only down about 10% on the total sales for the year. We still have a lot more sales year to date than 5 years ago when I started in the business. The market is slower, but not a buyers market yet.

[naplesrealestate]

I think that NAR defines a buyers market as one where the active inventory is 6 months or more.

[kensmith]

6 months isn't a that much inventory. That would be at best a normal market IMO, actually that would be a pretty good market in my area. Even when it was a hot market we still had about 3-6 months of inventory based on the town. And we called that a Sellers market...lol. This business is so based on local market conditions.

[naplesrealestate]

I agree that real estate is local and probably more local than ever before.

[Andrea Messenger]

The market conditions will certainly vary for each market, although it does appear that the national trend certainly favors the buyer. I know in Phoenix, there is no question that it is a buyer's market.

In 2005, we had around 9,000 listings in our MLS and most homes selling within days at or above list price. Now, we are averaging 46,000 to 48,000 listings and depending on the area, an average of 6-12 month supply of homes. Some of the outlying cities can be 2+ years supply.

I hear many people from other areas of the country saying that it is taking a while to sell homes and things have slowed down everywhere.

On a national level, I think the problem with our market "craze" around 2005 was partially due to the super low interest rates and bad mortgage products (interest only loans and ARMS were over-used and abused). People bought more house than they could afford and we had many, many investors and 2nd homebuyers purchasing property.

Now, all those folks that didn't sell before the slow-down are realizing that they can't afford the home they're in or can't afford the extra homes they bought.

In the Phoenix area, approx 45% of our current inventory is vacant!!! That is almost half -- just sitting vacant. That speaks volumes about one major reason why we are in a buyer's market. I would like to know what vacancy rates are in other markets.

Not to mention the other issues going on now such as Builders are outselling resales because of financial incentives and up to 10% REALTOR commissions.

It is tough to try to sell right now -- especially if you bought high within recent years and now have to sell low. Anyone else predicting an upcoming foreclosure market???

[austinrealestate]

Back when most of the these posts were written Austin was still a sellers market. 2007 was a good year for us. But at the end of 2007 things changed suddenly and we moved into a buyers market and have been there since then.